Nigeria is unlikely to fulfill its own targeted 1.58 million barrels per day production level in 2024, according to projections by two consultancies tasked by OPEC+ to independently verify output capabilities. This poses challenges as the country lobbies for a higher quota amid OPEC+ supply cuts.
Years of declining Nigerian volumes led OPEC+ to slash the nation’s 2024 allocation to 1.38 million bpd, down from 1.74 million bpd in 2023. The 1.58 million bpd figure was subject to external verification which now appears unattainable.
Rystad and another unnamed firm estimate Nigeria falling short of 1.58 million despite planned field restarts and anti-sabotage initiatives. Rystad sees 1.5 million bpd possible absent major disruptions.
Past disagreements over self-reported production statistics led OPEC+ to mandate third-party assessments. However, most experts don’t foresee Nigeria even hitting its reduced 1.38 million bpd quota given chronic underinvestment and regional instability.
While Nigeria expresses confidence in the findings, lacking independent verification of its ambitious target could force OPEC+ concessions to secure an overall supply accord.
As its economy and budget hinges on reviving oil revenues, Nigeria fights to pump more. But analysts insist goals must remain grounded or complicate a complex balancing act for OPEC+’s delicate cooperation.
